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Lifting Off: Analysis of Potential Carbon Offset Supply for CORSIA Phase I (2021-23)

Client: The Nature Conservancy

Engagement - insights

In 2019 Anthropocene was engaged by The Nature Conservancy to research and assess the supply potential of a set of carbon offset programs under consideration by the ICAO Council to supply CORSIA eligible offsets.


Working alongside Kelley Hamrick (Climate Policy Advisor, TNC), raw registry data sets were obtained, analysed and modelled to identify supply potential based on a set of assumed eligibility constraints.

The paper sets out estimated supply potential in the coming first period of CORSIA and further identifies a series of recommendations to enhance the availability and quality of supply side carbon data.



  • As CORSIA becomes operationalized and airlines look to purchase carbon credits19 , there is a need for industry-wide data integrity standardization.
  • Additional research is needed to better understand competing demand for CORSIAeligible credits.
  • Competing demand considerations are especially relevant for NCS credits: while our analysis of supply and demand revealed that few NCS credits will initially be available under CORSIA, this is due to pre-existing demand in other markets.


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